IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

The Netherlands: The government has collapsed. Why now, and What next?
On 10 July, Netherlands’ Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced his exit from politics after the next election, following the government collapse over immigrant regulation.

On 07 July, Rutte announced his resignation after the unsuccessful rounds of negotiation over asylum policy. His conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) party has been attempting to reduce the inflow of asylum seekers to 200 per month since the issue over overcrowding of migration centres sparked in 2022. Whereas his coalition parties, Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Christian Union, and the D66, opposed the move leading to the collapse of the government coalition. Rutte said: "All parties went to great lengths to find a solution, but the differences on migration are unfortunately impossible to bridge." Since 2022, the number of asylum application had increased one-third (47,000), and as per government reports, 70,000 are expected to apply in 2023.

What is the two-tier asylum system proposed by the VVD?
The VVD party’s demand to create a “two-tier” system for asylum seekers was agreed, but the consensus broke over “family re-unification.”

The two-tier system proposed the creation of two classes of asylum seekers. A temporary one to include those people escaping from conflict zones, who can return when the conflict is over. Next is a permanent one for people fleeing from trial (death list or sexual orientation). Apart from this categorisation, the VVD also aims to bring down the number of migrants in Netherlands’ by restricting the family members who can join the asylum seekers. This includes limiting the number of children of war refugees in Netherlands’ and adds a waiting period of two years for the family to re-unite. This was aimed at tapering the asylum policy by VVD and CDA.

Immigration: Why it is an issue now?
This is not a new issue. The concern over migration has been present for long time in Netherlands.

According to the statistics from the Immigration & Naturalisation Service (IND) of the Netherlands, most of the resident permit application had come from India, China, the US, and Turkey. The count decreased during COVID-19 and then increased by 2021. It also reported a massive hike in the number of application for Dutch citizenship, increasing from 43,660 in 2020 to 59,680 in 2021. These were majorly from Syria, Eritrea, and India.

To address the increasing immigration and the issue of inadequate shelters, the Dutch government took measures to limit the influx. It ruled that families of “permit holders,” who do not have an accommodation will not be allowed to travel. At the same time, it ordered the municipalities to create shelters for the existing asylum seekers with “residence permit.” If the permit holder is not allotted a residence by 15 months, will still be given a visa, the waiting period was viewed to help the “Immigration and Naturalization Service” to screen the permit applications.

According to Saskia Bonjour, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam stated that the move was illegal as per European Directive as the longer the children of the immigrant families stay apart the more harmful it is. Stating the similar reason, the Rutte’s coalition parties withdrew their support.

What next after the collapse?
Similar to other European leaders such as Spain’s far-right Vox party, Sweden Democrats, France’s Marine Le Pen, Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Italy’s Prime Minister Georgia Melonia, Rutte took the anti-immigration stance.

The collapse the government means new elections which is likely to take place in November, until which Rutte will head the caretaker government. Rutte being the longest served prime minister faces the fallouts of the broken coalition, but this is not the first time. In 2021, the cabinet resigned over failure of the government to guard people from tax inspectors and in time has earned the anger of farmers over announcement of reducing nitrogen pollution. Now, with the crack over migration policy, Rutte still stands a chance as the coalition partners CDI and Christian Union do not have enough support to become a majority, while opposition party “Farmer-Citizen Movement” still needs a big leap to push from second place to win VVD.

In terms of the migration policy, the VVD will have to let go of the new measures to tighten the immigrant influx until there is support.

References:
Claire Moses, “What You Need to Know About the Dutch Government Collapse,” The New York Times, 08 July 2023
Claire Moses and Dan Bilefsky, “Dutch Government Collapses Over Plan to Further Limit Immigration,” The New York Times, 07 July 2023
“Netherlands: Rising immigration and new government initiatives,” European Commission, 25 September 2022
“Cabinet agrees on limiting the influx of asylum seekers, putting the brakes on family reunification,” nos.nl, 26 August 2022
Peter Rodrigues, and Job Cohen, “Two status system in asylum policy is a divisive issue,” universiteitleiden.n, 17 May 2023

War in Ukraine: Day 499 & 500
By Sneha Surendran

War on the Ground
On 08 July, NPRI reported on Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, commemorating the 500th day of the Russia-Ukraine war on Snake Island in the Black Sea. In a video statement, Zelenskyy said: “I want to thank — from here, from this place of victory — each of our soldiers for these 500 days…Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine!” 

On 08 July, The Guardian reported that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is uncertain ahead of the military alliance’s summit on 11 July in Vilnius, Lithuania. The difficulty in joining as a member comes after the US and Germany withdrew support to join the alliance while the war is ongoing. Ukraine’s Foreign Secretary remarked that the summit in Vilnius would be a “unique moment” to gain “clarity on Ukraine’s accession invitation.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 08 July, RadioFreeEurope reported that Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, had visited the Southern Military District where he inspected soldiers, and supervised the training of new units. This was Shoigu’s first public appearance since the Wagner troop's rebellion last month. 

On 08 July, TASS reported that Russia has called for a UNSC meeting on 11 July to converse regarding the Nord Stream Pipeline explosions.  First Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, informed about the request, stating: “We will strike another blow at the Westerners' policy that the attention from Denmark, Germany and Sweden is enough to investigate this crime and no international effort is needed to find the culprits.” 

On 09 July, TASS reported on the Governor of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov’s, statement that air defence forces had downed a cruise missile near Kerch. Aksyonov further said that there had been no damage or casualties. He urged the people to maintain peace and trust only legitimate sources.

On 10 July, NHK World-Japan reported that the Foreign Ministers of Russia and Turkey, Sergey Lavrov and Hakan Fidan, had a phone conversation where the former demanded an explanation for the release of five former Ukrainian commanders from Turkey to Ukraine. The five commanders were from the Azov battalion which had fought in Mariupol last year and had been captured by Russian forces. However, they had been in Turkey since a prisoner swap mediated by Turkey. The ministers also discussed the Black Sea grain deal, which is set to expire on 17 July.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
On 09 July, President of the US, Joe Biden, said that Ukraine was not ready to join NATO as it entails a long procedure from “democratization to a whole range of other issues.” However, Ukraine is expected to receive long-term military aid assurances from the US, UK, France, and Germany at the summit. 

On 07 July, Deutsche Welle reported that on the commemoration of the 500th day of the Russia-Ukraine war, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the US’s support to Ukraine. Blinken stated: “Ukrainians have fought bravely to defend their country, freedom and right to determine their own future. The US will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to achieve a just and durable peace.” 

On 07 July, Deutsche Welle reported on the survey results of a research institute which said that 42 per cent of Germans were in favour of Ukraine joining NATO after the war ended while only 13 per cent of the respondents were in favour of immediate accession. 29 per cent were not in favour of Ukraine joining NATO at all. 58 per cent wanted Russia and Ukraine to begin talks to end the war immediately while 26 per cent were against peace talks. 

On 08 July, Reuters reported on Poland’s Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak’s statement that over 1000 troops had been deployed to the country’s eastern borders in response to concerns over the Wagner troop's presence in Belarus. 200 units of equipment are also being sent. Blaszczak said: “This is a demonstration of our readiness to respond to attempts at destabilization near the border of our country.” 

On 09 July, BBC reported that the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Spain have all expressed their opposition to the USA’s decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said cluster bombs were “indiscriminate, they cause huge damage to innocent people, potentially, and they can have a long-lasting effect as well.” Spain’s Defence Minister Margarita Robles said that while Ukraine had to be defended, cluster bombs could not be sent. Both UK and Canada reaffirmed their commitment to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. 

On 09 July, Politico reported that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had informed U.S. President Joe Biden that Sweden’s progress was not satisfactory enough to warrant Turkey’s support to them for NATO accession. An official statement from Turkey said: “Erdoğan stated that Sweden has taken some steps in the right direction by making changes in the anti-terrorism legislation.” However, the presence of supporters of “terrorist organizations” banned in Turkey invalidated these steps.   

On 10 July, Biden landed in Britain to meet King Charles III and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak before heading to the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. The White House statement said that the visit would “further strengthen the close relationship” between the allies. 

References
“Zelenskyy hails Ukraine's soldiers from a Black Sea island to mark 500 days of war,” NPR, 08 July 2023
Dan Sabbagh, “Ukraine pessimistic about joining Nato ahead of Vilnius summit,” The Guardian, 09 July 2023
“Russian Defense Minister Shoigu Shown Inspecting Troops,” Radio Free Europe, 08 July 2023
“Russia requests UNSC meeting on July 11 over explosions at Nord Stream pipeline,” TASS, 08 July 2023
“Russia and Turkey discuss release of Ukrainian commanders, grain deal,” NHK World-Japan, 09 July 2023
“Russian paramilitaries planning further operations in border area,” Ghana News Agency, 09 July 2023
“Cruise missile shot down by air defense near Kerch, no casualties – Crimean governor,” TASS, 09 July 2023
“Russia calls on NATO to discuss Ukraine nuclear plant at summit,” The Japan Times, 09 July 2023
“Ukraine: Mariupol commanders return home with Zelenskyy,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2023
“Poland moves troops to eastern border amid Wagner fears,” Reuters, 09 July 2023
“Cluster bombs: Unease grows over US sending cluster bombs to Ukraine,” BBC, 09 July 2023
Gabriel Gavin, “Sweden still not ready for NATO, Erdoğan tells Biden,” Politico, 09 July 2023
“Biden visits Britain ahead of NATO summit,” The Australian, 10 July 2023

IN BRIEF
By Prerana P

FRANCE
Attack on Mayors indicates the break in democracy
On 09 July, French top intelligence has warned about the of the far-right violent action. Nicolas Lerner, the French Director General of Internal Security (DGSI) called the incident, “a very worrying resurgence of violent action” and claimed to bring break in the democratic framework. The attack targeted mayors of Saint-Brevin-Pins, asylum seekers and refugees. He accused that since 2017, the far-right group has executed ten planned terrorist attacks. He stated that the far-left protest against environmental issues such as the protest against the proposed water shortage mega basins and called the action a “legitimate battle.” In reply to the Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin’s statement which called “eco-terrorists,” Lerner explained that “no action” of terrorist nature has been committed though he added that few agencies remain “vigilant.” Regarding the Islamist terrorism, Lerner emphasized on the increasing radicalisation of individuals in Europe and Central Asia, especially from the terrorist organisations of Syria and Afghanistan. (“Far-right violence on the march again, warns French intelligence chief,” Euronews, 09 July 2023)

GERMANY
Australia signs the largest export deal, that can elevate the economy
On 10 July, a meeting was scheduled between Anthony Albanese, the Prime Minister of Australia and Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor. Australia has agreed to sign one of the largest defence export deals, which will deliver 100 Brisbane- made Boxer heavy weapons carriers to Germany. He added that the deal would enhance defence capability and boost economy. He pointed that the German defence manufacturer Rheinmetall made vehicles sales cost more than USD one billion to the Australian economy. The one-on-one meeting between the prime ministers will soon take place, where the leaders are expected to discuss on the manufacturing, clean energy, security in the Indo-Pacific region and about the war in Ukraine. Jason Clare, Member of the Australian House of Representative has announced that the country would provide a support package of USD 110 million to Ukraine. He added: “At the moment we are the biggest non-NATO investor or supporter of the effort in Ukraine, except for Sweden, who is about to become part of NATO.” Australian Prime Minister has pointed out that NATO is diverting from its purpose as European and US Alliance. (“Anthony Albanese announces $1bn defence deal with Germany before NATO talks,” The Guardian, 09 July 2023)

THE UK
Discussion on the US’s supply of cluster bombs to Ukraine
On 10 July, a meeting will be held between Biden and Rishi Sunak where the leaders are expected to discuss on various issues including the war in Ukraine. US has decided its call send cluster bombs to Ukraine due to its dwindling weapon stocks. UK has not directly criticised US but stated that UK is one among the 123 countries which signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions treaty which bans the production of the weapons.

New Zealand further added that the munition could bring: “huge damage to innocent people.” Canada, Spain and other NATO allies has opposed and distanced from US’s decision. US claimed to have received written reassurances from Kyiv that the troop will not use the weapons in Russia or other areas. US seeks support from UK to help broker a deal with Turkey on Sweden’s bid. Ukraine is expected to attend this week’s summit and has requested on the signal to join the NATO alliance after the war. (Kathryn Armstrong and James FitzGerald, “Joe Biden in UK to meet Sunak and King Charles amid Ukraine concerns,” BBC, 10 July 2023)

SPAIN
Boat carrying 200 people from Senegal is reportedly missing
On 10 July, BBC reported on the missing migrant boat which sailed from southern Senegal. The Spanish rescuers are searching for a boat which carried around 200 African migrants off the Canary Islands. The boat reportedly carried many children and the Spanish maritime rescue service has joined the search. The route from West Africa to the Canary Island is considered to be the dangerous routes for migrants as the boats are usually use the simple dugout fishing boats. The UN International Organisation for Migration (IOM) stated: “Last year at least 559 people died at sea attempting to reach the Spanish islands.” The IOM added that the usage of such dangerous routes has remained high compared to previous years. (“Migrant boat from Senegal carrying 200 people missing off Canary Islands,” BBC, 10 July 2023)

GEORGIA
The far-right wing disrupts the Georgia Pride event
On 08 July, over 2,000 anti-LGBT protesters protested and stormed across the gay pride festival, held in the capital city of Georgia. The right-wing protesters, which included Orthodox Christian clergy burnt the rainbow flag. President Salome Zurabishvili blamed on the Georgian Dream party which failed to condemn its followers from violent aggressions. Interior Minister Alexander Darakhvelidze said: “This was an open area, participants of the protest managed to bypass the security and find other ways to enter the event area.” A similar protest had disrupted a Pride festival in Georgia in 2001. The organiser of the 2023 Pride event stated that far-right group had been “openly inciting violence,” and complained that the Ministry of Interior and the police did not do anything. (“Georgia Pride festival in Tbilisi stormed by right-wing protesters,” BBC, 09 July 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
The delay in the ratification of EU-ACP treaty
On 07 July, Euractiv reported on the treaty that governed the relation between the EU and other 89 members of African, Caribbean and Pacific countries which still remain unratified. The Austrian Social Democrat MEP stated that it’s been two years of delayed ratification, could build mistrust between the nations. He further added that it can halt the developing partnerships keeping the countries and the EU under hostage. Hungarian government secured assurances from the European Commission of not interfering into the migration and sexual rights from governments. The EU and (African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States) ACP has confirmed on the four-month extension of the existing treaty. The Commission further will invest EUR 100 million to Tunisia, with regard to the anti-smuggling activities, border management and migrant and rescue operations. Heide questioned on the need to invest money on autocratic states, and claimed that these countries don’t use it for democratic process. On 06 July, the NGO Human Rights Watch has reported on the expel of hundreds of Sub-Saharan African migrants at the Libyan border. The EU pledged to provide technical, logistical and monetary support to the Libyan returned migrants. (Benjamin Fox, “Polish deadlock on EU-Africa treaty is holding relationship ‘hostage’,” Euractiv, 07 July 2023)